AI in defence: Why the next war could be fought by robots, not humans?

The world has become unstable over the years. Whether it is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war or the current Israel-Palestine crisis, it is clear that many regions in the world are becoming unstable. In this background, the innovations in technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI) new opportunities as well as challenges are being created for the defence and security actors. The global spending on AI reached $118 billion in 2022 and is expected to cross $300 billion in 2026. 

Maximizing resources in the current defence environment is a major concern. For example, the number of active-duty military personnel in the US armed forces is least since 1940, and the UK has seen a 30% reduction in its military ranks since 2000. With fewer people tasked to do more in increasingly complex operational theatres, national defence strategists in the USA and other defence organizations across the world see advancements in data, analytics, and AI development as force multipliers and enablers.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and defence market size trends in 2025

AI in the military market has steadily increased over the last few years. It is expected to grow from $9.67 billion in 2024 to $11.25 billion in 2025 at a CAGR of 16.4%. This growth is mainly due to the increase in budget allocations, the rise of cybersecurity threats, increasing data availability and economic growth. Most governments now have specialized departments or organizations that mainly focus on inventing new AI solutions and capabilities for military equipment. For example – in the Pentagon’s 2022 research and development budget request, the Department of Defence Headquarters, USA army has requested $874 million for AI & ML technologies. 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the Indian defence industry

The Department of Defence Production of the Indian Ministry of Defence created a task force called ‘Strategic Implementation of AI for National Security and Defence’. It focused on the future use of AI in the defence sector. The task force submitted its report in June 2018, and in 2019, officials set up a Defence AI Council (DAIC) and a Defence AI Project Agency (DAIPA).

The DAIC is headed by the Defence Minister and comprises the three service chiefs, the defence secretary, the National Cyber Security Coordinator, and members from the DRDO, industry, and academia. The DAIC meets twice a year and provides necessary support to help the development or tailoring of the operating framework, policy level changes, and structural support.

The DAIPA on the other hand will evolve and adopt standards for technology development and delivery process for Al projects and review the adoption plan of Al-led and Al-enabled systems and processes with the user groups.

A budget of Rs. 100 Crore ($12 million) was also decided to be made by MoD each year for the next five years to DAIPA for taking up Al projects, setting up Al-related infrastructure, preparing Al-related data, and capacity building. Additionally, each service shall earmark Rs. 100 crore per year for AI-specific application development for the next five years from their annual budgetary allocations.

How are various countries using AI in their defence strategy?

USA

The U.S. Department of Defence has used AI through a project known as Project Maven. It used AI to analyze and process massive amounts of imagery data from drone surveillance. This helps identify objects of interest such as vehicles, people, and weaponry in real time. This increases the quality of intelligence reports.

China

China uses AI for border security and surveillance. The Chinese government is using AI technologies in its surveillance systems to keep a check on its borders and urban areas. The AI systems track and identify individuals from CCTV cameras and drones.

Russia

The Uran-9 by Russia is a robotic combat vehicle where AI helps the vehicle navigate, identify targets, and engage them autonomously. Additionally, Russia has also been focusing heavily on using AI in cyber warfare, using machine learning algorithms to detect and defend against cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.

Israel

Israel is also using AI in its drone swarms for observation and attack. Israeli defence systems like the Iron Dome use AI and machine learning algorithms to block and destroy incoming missiles precisely.  Additionally, Israel is working on AI-powered autonomous drone swarms that can operate on their own to achieve military objectives without direct human control.

South Korea

South Korea has deployed autonomous combat robots, known as Sentry Robots, along the border with North Korea. These AI-powered robots identify potential threats and autonomously engage targets in case of intrusion.

France

France has invested in AI-powered military training simulators to create more realistic and adaptable wargame scenarios. These AI-driven simulators allow French military personnel to train against virtual adversaries. Moreover, these simulators can adapt to the strategies of the trainees and make training sessions more nuanced and realistic.

Turkey

Turkey has developed autonomous unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs). The Kaplan and Arma series are capable of reconnaissance, surveillance, and offensive operations.

Threats and future of using AI in defence

Although there are many challenges where AI and the defence systems of the world merge, the overlap can help countries solve issues with zero risk to human life. However, like the internet, we must also use Artificial Intelligence with responsibility. Autonomous weapons systems could make decisions to target and engage without human oversight can be a potential threat. This raises ethical questions about accountability in the event of accidental or unlawful attacks. Moreover, there’s the danger of AI decision-making replacing human judgment in life-or-death situations could also to unintended consequences. Machines lack the nuanced understanding of human emotions and ethical considerations that are crucial in many military contexts. While AI promises to revolutionize defence, it also requires careful regulation, international agreements, and thoughtful implementation.