U.S. president recently appointed David Sacks as his “White House A.I. & Crypto Czar.” This was a step towards giving a new shape to U.S. policy. This shows how important has AI become in current times. Artificial Intelligence has grabbed the attention of most policymakers in recent years. Every day, companies launch new AI tools in different sectors. Their rapid adoption has stirred a conversation about promoting innovation and new-age technology while safeguarding the interests of individuals and society. AI is a powerful tool for policymaking and policy implementation. It allows improvements in the quality of services and the time taken to provide administrative tasks. AI has applications across the various stages of the policy cycle, from agenda setting to policy formulation, decision-making, implementation, and evaluation. This blog takes a deep dive into the impact of AI on policymaking and policymakers.
“It seems probable that once the machine thinking method had started, it would not take long to outdo our feeble powers. There would be no question of the machines dying, and they would be able to converse with each other to sharpen their wits. At some stage, therefore, we should have to expect the machines to take control..”
The above was not meant to be scary at all. This was remarked on by Alan Turing in his 1951 lecture titled ‘Intelligent Machinery, A Heretical Theory’. In his speech, he set out a qualitative proof that machines can think like humans. The words, which ended the lecture, were said not as a warning to humans but as a logical and necessary consequence of the proof. Machines surpassing humans and taking over is not the result of some evil plan. Rather, it is the logical outcome of an ever-improving and ultra-efficient artificial intelligence (AI). That unavoidable progression is what should concern us.
The power of AI in policy and how it’s changing the game?
Let us look at the role of AI in the various steps of policymaking.
Agenda setting
At the first stage of the policy cycle, AI could support policymakers in determining the most critical challenges affecting their constituents, through analyses of large datasets and crowdsourced data. In Australia, for example, the Department of Health and Human Services of the Victoria State Government used advanced text analysis of anonymised historical triage data to detect unusual patterns of illnesses and identify public health risks.
Formulation of plans
At this stage of the policy cycle, the predictive power of AI is a useful and powerful tool. It can help in estimating the likely impacts of economic policies, projecting the costs and benefits of policy options and properly identifying the target population. For example, the UNCTAD has developed artificial neural networks that predict the impact of trade policies on global trade flows.
Decision making
At the policy formulation stage, AI could serve as a simulator to test and forecast the potential impacts of economic policies. In contrast, at the decision-making stage, AI could be a tool to improve the quality and speed of the daily decision-making process in legislative bodies. For example, AI can help provide solutions to issues related to congressional and committee scheduling and create optimal models to improve the planning of hearings and the scheduling of votes, which allows the decision-making process in the legislature to be more efficient.
Implementation
AI could advance the evaluation stage of the policy. It can provide faster and more accurate data that can assess the impact of policies. For example, the World Bank developed machine learning algorithms to quantify and evaluate the impact of trade agreements on trade flows.
Can AI in policy replace human policymakers?
While AI may perform well and provide assistance within well-defined environments, it has its limitations. The human brain on the other hand has the power to reason and strategize across new and unexpected scenarios. This means that AI is still very far from being able to automate the whole policymaking cycle. Human intelligence is useful in many policy tasks. Overall, policy design requires analytical and strategic intelligence, both of which AI currently excels at. But it also requires building consensus, effective negotiation, evaluating information critically, questioning assumptions, making well-reasoned decisions, understanding political contexts and considering ethical implications.
Therefore, critical thinking and many other types of emotional, creative, social and ethical intelligence are at play. However, AI could still serve as an invaluable support tool. AI can complement our cognitive abilities further by analysing patterns in vast datasets, and constructing so-called digital twins. These have the power to simulate physical and/or social phenomena that can help to test different scenarios and their consequences and risks.
AI in policy – The road ahead
Users could use AI as a tool to achieve different objectives, depending on their motivation. However, there must be guardrails to ensure its trustworthy, safe and responsible use. Economies could develop AI governance frameworks to provide clarity on its use. They must also ensure that regulatory imperatives are met, while at the same time encouraging innovation.
